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NITI Aayog’s “Trade Watch Quarterly”

07 Oct 2025 GS 3 Economy
NITI Aayog’s “Trade Watch Quarterly” Click to view full image

Context

  • Released on 6 October 2025 in New Delhi by B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, CEO, NITI Aayog.

  • This is the fourth edition of Trade Watch Quarterly, covering January–March 2025 (Q4 of FY 2024–25).

  • The report provides a comprehensive assessment of India’s trade performance, sectoral trends, and export diversification opportunities.

Key Highlights

1. Overall Trade Performance

  • Total trade (Q4 FY25): USD 441 billion, up 2.2% YoY.

  • Merchandise Exports:

    • Slight contraction due to lower mineral fuels and organic chemicals.

    • Growth sectors: Electrical machinery, pharmaceuticals, and cereals.

  • Imports:

    • Marginal increase driven by nuclear reactors, electrical machinery, and inorganic chemicals.

2. Regional Trade Trends

  • North America:

    • Emerged as strongest export market, growing 25% YoY.

    • Accounts for 25% of India’s total exports.

  • EU, GCC, ASEAN:

    • Exports moderated due to soft global demand.

  • Imports:

    • UAE overtook Russia as second-largest supplier, driven by gold inflows under CEPA.

    • China’s imports surged due to demand for electronics and capital goods.

3. Sectoral Focus – Leather and Footwear

  • Employment: ~4.4 million people employed.

  • Global Share: 1.8% of USD 296 billion global market.

  • Competitive Edge:

    • Strong in processed leather and niche apparel segments.

  • Challenges:

    • Rising global shift to non-leather and sustainable materials.

    • Need for design innovation, R&D, and environmental compliance.

  • Opportunities:

    • Diversification into non-leather footwear, eco-friendly production, and value-added exports.

  • Policy Direction:

    • Strengthening MSMEs, integrating green technologies, and linking with global value chains (GVCs).

4. Emerging Trends & Strategic Directions

  • Resilience Drivers:

    • Growth in services exports, aerospace, and high-value manufacturing.

  • Policy Emphasis (as stated by B.V.R. Subrahmanyam):

    • Adapt rapidly to evolving global demand patterns.

    • Enhance export diversification and competitiveness.

    • Monitor geopolitical developments influencing trade flows.

    • Promote innovation and sustainability in traditional sectors like footwear.

5. Broader Policy Context

  • Aligned with India’s goals under:

    • Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2023 – focus on district export hubs and value chain integration.

    • Make in India & Aatmanirbhar Bharat – promoting manufacturing-led exports.

    • Viksit Bharat @2047 vision – creating globally competitive, sustainable trade ecosystems.



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