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India’s progress on its climate targets

08 Jan 2026 GS 3 Environment
India’s progress on its climate targets Click to view full image

Context

  • India’s climate commitments are rooted in the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) under the Paris Agreement.

  • Although India’s per capita emissions remain low, it is currently the third-largest emitter in absolute terms due to scale of population and growth.

India’s quantified climate commitments (Paris, 2015)

India committed to four major targets (baseline: 2005):

  1. Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% by 2030

  2. Achieve 40% non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2030
    (later enhanced to 50% by 2030)

  3. Install 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022

  4. Create an additional forest carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2030

Emissions intensity: major achievement, limited impact

Achievements

  • Emissions intensity reduced by ~36% by 2020, achieving the target a decade early.

  • Drivers:

    • Rapid expansion of non-fossil power capacity

    • Structural shift towards services and digital economy

    • Energy efficiency schemes:

      • Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT)

      • UJALA LED programme

Limitation: incomplete decoupling

  • GDP growth > emissions growth, leading to lower intensity.

  • Absolute emissions remain high (~2,959 MtCO₂e in 2020).

  • Sectoral divergence:

    • Power sector emissions growth moderated

    • Cement, steel and transport emissions continue to rise

Key concept:

India has achieved relative decoupling, not absolute decoupling.

Renewable energy: capacity vs generation gap

Installed capacity progress

  • Non-fossil capacity:

    • ~29.5% (2015) → ~51% (June 2025)

  • Solar:

    • ~2.8 GW (2014) → ~110.9 GW (mid-2025)

  • Wind:

    • ~21 GW → ~51.3 GW

Structural gap

  • Renewables supply only ~22% of electricity generation (2024-25) despite >50% capacity.

  • Reasons:

    • Low capacity factors of solar and wind

    • Intermittency

    • Lack of large-scale storage

  • Coal remains dominant:

    • ~240–253 GW coal-based capacity

    • Provides continuous baseload power

    • 70% of electricity generation

Energy storage: critical bottleneck

  • Projected storage demand (2029-30): ~336 GWh (by Central Electricity Authority)

  • Operational storage (Sept 2025): ~500 MWh

  • Implication:

    • Renewable capacity alone cannot displace coal

    • Storage, transmission upgrades and grid integration are essential

Missed and revised targets

  • 175 GW renewable target (2022): missed

  • 500 GW by 2030: technically feasible but requires:

    • Faster storage deployment

    • Stronger grid connectivity

    • Land acquisition reforms

    • Policy coordination across States

Forest carbon sink: numbers vs ecology

Official progress

  • India State of Forest Report 2023:

    • Total carbon stock: ~30.43 billion tonnes CO₂e

    • Additional sink since 2005: ~2.29 billion tonnes

    • Only ~0.2 billion tonnes remaining to meet target

Structural concerns

  • Forest Survey of India definition of forest cover:

    • Any land >1 hectare with >10% canopy

    • Includes plantations, monocultures, orchards, roadside trees

  • Forest cover increase (2021–23): only 156 sq km

Governance issues

  • Compensatory Afforestation Fund:

    • ~₹95,000 crore accumulated

    • Poor utilisation in several States

  • Green India Mission (Revised, 2025):

    • Focus on plantations equated with regeneration

    • Risk of prioritising carbon accounting over biodiversity

Climate stress and ecosystem limits

  • Satellite “greening” indicators do not fully reflect:

    • Net primary productivity

    • Carbon assimilation under heat and water stress

  • Vulnerable regions:

    • Western Ghats

    • Northeastern India

Core challenges ahead

  1. Translate intensity reduction into absolute emissions moderation

  2. Develop a transparent coal phase-down roadmap

  3. Scale battery and pumped storage rapidly

  4. Strengthen grid connectivity and transmission

  5. Reform forest governance for biodiversity outcomes

  6. Improve data transparency across sectors and regions

Prelims practice MCQs

Q. With reference to India’s climate commitments made under the Paris Agreement, consider the following statements:

  1. India committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33–35% by 2030 from 2005 levels.

  2. India committed to achieving absolute reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

  3. India committed to creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through forests.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 1 and 3 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3

Correct answer: (b)

Explanation:

  • India’s commitment was intensity-based, not an absolute emissions reduction target.

  • The forest carbon sink commitment of 2.5–3 billion tonnes is explicitly part of India’s NDC.

Q. India achieved its emissions intensity reduction target ahead of schedule mainly due to:

  1. Expansion of non-fossil electricity capacity

  2. Structural shift of the economy towards services

  3. Efficiency schemes such as PAT and UJALA

  4. Decline in absolute coal consumption

Which of the above factors are correct?

(a) 1, 2 and 3 only
(b) 1 and 4 only
(c) 2 and 4 only
(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

Correct answer: (a)

Explanation:

  • The article highlights energy mix change, economic restructuring, and efficiency programmes.

  • Absolute coal consumption has not declined, making statement 4 incorrect.

Q. The term “incomplete (or partial) decoupling” in India’s climate context refers to:

(a) Reduction in emissions without economic growth
(b) Economic growth occurring with a fall in total emissions
(c) Decline in emissions intensity despite continued growth in absolute emissions
(d) Complete separation of GDP growth from energy consumption

Correct answer: (c)

Explanation:

  • India’s GDP has grown faster than emissions, reducing intensity, but absolute emissions remain high.



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