Iran, Nuclear Weapons, and the NPT Crisis

Four Phases of Iran’s Nuclear Journey

1. Phase 1 – Model State (1968–1979):

   • Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on July 1, 1968, and ratified it in 1970 under Shah Reza Pahlavi.

   • Promoted peaceful nuclear energy under the White Revolution.

   • Cooperated with global non-proliferation norms.

2. Phase 2 – Ambiguity (1979–2002):

   • Post-1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran became a theocratic republic.

   • Ambiguous stance on nuclear weapons; Ayatollah Khomeini initially rejected nuclear arms.

   • Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) and Saddam Hussein’s chemical attacks prompted Iran to reconsider deterrence options.

3. Phase 3 – Exposure and Isolation (2002–2015):

   • In 2002, Iranian dissidents exposed secret nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak, violating NPT safeguards.

   • In 2005, IAEA found Iran non-compliant; Iran stopped implementing the Additional Protocol in 2006.

   • Resulted in UN sanctions (2006–2014).

   • President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emphasized uranium enrichment as a sovereign right.

   • JCPOA signed in 2015 under President Hassan Rouhani with P5+1 (US, UK, France, China, Russia + Germany) — Iran agreed to curb enrichment in return for sanction relief.

4. Phase 4 – Breakdown of Diplomacy (2018–present):

   • 2018: U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions.

   • Iran resumed enrichment, exceeding JCPOA limits by 2022, nearing weapons-grade uranium.

   • 2025: Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities further escalated tensions.

   • Iran threatens to invoke Article X of the NPT to withdraw, citing “extraordinary events” (Israeli strikes) that threaten national interest.

   • President Masoud Pezeshkian maintains Iran does not seek nuclear arms, but diplomacy is now stalled.

Consequences and Global Implications

• A nuclear-armed Iran may spark a regional arms race in West Asia (e.g., Saudi Arabia seeking weapons).

• International community divided between pressure (sanctions, military) and engagement (diplomacy).

• If diplomacy fails, the world faces:

  • A nuclear Iran, or

  • A war to prevent a nuclear Iran — both defeat the original intent of the NPT.

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

• Opened: 1968; Came into force: 1970.

• Three Pillars:

  1. Non-proliferation – prevent spread of nuclear weapons.

  2. Disarmament – gradual disarmament of existing nuclear powers.

  3. Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy – all nations can pursue civil nuclear tech under safeguards.

• Article X: Allows a country to withdraw with a 3-month notice if “extraordinary events” threaten national interests.

India and the NPT

• India is not a signatory to the NPT.

• Reasons for refusal:

  • NPT is discriminatory, as it permanently legitimizes the nuclear weapons of five countries (US, UK, France, Russia, China) while barring others.

  • India views NPT as legitimizing nuclear apartheid.

  • India supports universal and non-discriminatory disarmament, but not under current NPT terms.

• India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 (Smiling Buddha) and became a de facto nuclear power.

• Despite being outside the NPT:

  • India has maintained a strong non-proliferation record.

  • Entered into civil nuclear agreements (e.g., India–U.S. Civil Nuclear Deal, 2008).

  • Gained a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in 2008, enabling nuclear trade despite NPT non-membership.