“Warming will cut yield of staple crops post-adaptation”

22 Jun 2025 GS 3 Agriculture
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 UPSC Prelims and Mains (GS3: Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security):

Main Finding

  • A 1°C rise in average global temperature is projected to reduce per capita calorie availability by 4% by 2100, even after adaptation.

  • Most staple crops—rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, soybean—will suffer yield reductions by 2050 and 2100.

Significance of the Study

  • Unlike previous studies, this one models real-world adaptation by farmers:

    • Use of heat-tolerant crop varieties

    • Changes in sowing/harvesting timing

    • Modified irrigation patterns

  • It uses a massive dataset from 13,500 political units in 54 countries, covering diverse climates and crops.

Impact on Specific Crops

CropProjected Yield Trends
WheatSevere losses globally; -15% to -25% (Europe, Africa, South America); -30% to -40% (China, Russia, U.S., Canada); Northern India among the worst hit
RiceMixed results in India & Southeast Asia; but losses exceed -50% in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Central Asia
Maize, Soybean, SorghumGeneral downward trends, specifics not detailed here
Soybean & Rice (Previous studies)Projected productivity gains without accounting for real adaptation; this study shows that those gains may be overestimated

Adaptation Effectiveness

  • Adaptation can mitigate:

    • 23% of losses by 2050

    • 34% of losses by 2100

  • But residual losses still remain for all crops except rice.

Geographical Highlights

  • Wheat-growing areas like Eastern & Western Europe, China, U.S., Canada face large losses.

  • Western China shows both gains and losses.

  • Northern India is among the worst-affected wheat regions globally.

  • Rice yields in India show mixed results — neither strongly negative nor positive.

Broader Implications

  • Food security is at risk, even with adaptation.

  • Modern breadbaskets (developed countries with previously favorable climates) now also face significant damage.

  • Adaptation alone will not be enough—requires:

    • Agricultural innovation

    • Cropland expansion

    • Policy-level interventions



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